23 Million Goats: How the Herd Has Changed

At the end of 2024, Mongolia had 57.6 million livestock. That included 24.5 million sheep, 22.9 million goats, 5.1 million cattle, 4.7 million horses and 480,600 camels. Goats alone represented 39.8% of the country's entire livestock population. The National Statistics Office recorded 22.9 million goats in 2024, compared with 26.5 million in 2021 and 27.6 million in 2022. The 2024 total was therefore 4.7 million lower than in 2020 and 6.1 million lower than the 2022 peak.

The longer-term change is much larger. In 1990, Mongolia had 5.13 million goats out of 25.86 million total livestock. By 2020, the goat population had reached 26.46 million, while total livestock had reached 67.1 million. That means the number of goats increased by approximately 416% between 1990 and 2020, while the total livestock population increased by approximately 159%. The National Inventory Report, using National Statistics Office data, recorded that goats made up 20% of livestock in 1990 but 41.33% by 2020.

The change was particularly rapid during the 1990s. Official statistics show the goat population rising from 5.13 million in 1990 to 6.11 million in 1993, 7.24 million in 1994, 8.52 million in 1995 and 9.13 million in 1996. By 2000, the number had reached approximately 10.27 million. The National Statistics Office describes the significant growth in goats as beginning in 1993 and links the increase to rising cashmere prices.

The composition of the national herd changed along with the number of goats. According to the National Statistics Office, the traditional sheep-to-goat ratio was approximately 75:25, or three sheep for every goat, until 1990. From 2003 to 2009, goats outnumbered sheep, and between 2009 and 2015 the ratio was approximately 50:50. By 2024, goats represented 52% of the combined sheep-and-goat population, compared with 48% for sheep. The NSO states that goat numbers “almost reached as same level as the number of sheep” during 1994–2003, before exceeding sheep numbers in the following years.

This shift happened alongside a much larger increase in the overall livestock population. Mongolia's Fourth National Communication to the UNFCCC reports that total livestock increased from 22.7 million head in 1987 to 67.3 million in 2021. That is a 2.96-fold increase in 34 years. During approximately the same period, the area of rangeland reported in the document decreased from 123.554 million hectares in 1987 to 109.646 million hectares in 2020, a reduction of 11.25%.

The result was a substantial increase in livestock density. The Fourth National Communication reports that livestock density rose from 18 head per 100 hectares in 1987 to 61 head per 100 hectares in 2021. That is an increase of 239% in the number of livestock per 100 hectares. The report states that “pasture degradation has become a serious issue” in connection with increased livestock numbers and frequent natural disasters.

The increase in goats was not simply a result of population growth. Cashmere became an increasingly important economic incentive. A 2024 assessment of Mongolia's goat cashmere sector, using National Statistics Office data, shows the goat population increasing from 5.128 million in 1990 to 13.883 million in 2005, 27.720 million in 2015 and 26.456 million in 2021. The same report states that raw cashmere production doubled from 5.0 thousand tonnes in 2010 to 10.0 thousand tonnes in 2020.

There is therefore a measurable relationship between the growth of the cashmere industry and the growth of the goat population. That does not establish that cashmere production alone caused rangeland degradation. Climate, drought, pasture management, livestock distribution and extreme weather all affect the condition of rangelands. What the numbers do show is that the period of rapid cashmere-sector growth coincided with a major change in the composition and size of the national herd.

The 2024 numbers also show that the situation is changing again. Between 2022 and 2024, the total livestock population fell from 71.1 million to 57.6 million, a reduction of 13.5 million animals, or approximately 19%. Goats fell from 27.6 million to 22.9 million, a reduction of 4.65 million, or approximately 16.9%. Sheep fell by even more in absolute terms, from 32.7 million to 24.5 million, a reduction of approximately 8.3 million.

The National Statistics Office recorded a 10.9% decline in total livestock during 2024 alone. Sheep numbers fell by 16.7%, goats by 6.9%, cattle by 5.2% and horses by 3.0%, while camel numbers increased by 1.4%. These changes occurred during a period heavily affected by the 2023–2024 dzud. The important point when looking at the statistics is that a lower livestock population in 2024 does not necessarily mean that herd pressure has been permanently reduced. It represents the livestock population after a major period of animal losses.

The numbers also show why livestock composition matters. In 1990, goats accounted for roughly one fifth of the national herd. By 2024, they accounted for almost two fifths. At the same time, the total number of livestock per unit of rangeland increased substantially. A change from 18 livestock per 100 hectares to 61 livestock per 100 hectares means that the land was supporting more than three times as many animals per 100 hectares as it did in 1987.

None of these figures mean that goats or cashmere are inherently damaging. Cashmere is an important agricultural product and a major source of income. The statistics instead show how strongly economic demand can influence the composition of a livestock system. When one animal becomes particularly valuable because of a product such as cashmere, its share of the national herd can increase rapidly. In Mongolia's case, goats went from 5.1 million animals in 1990 to more than 27 million at their recent peak.

The question that follows from these numbers is not simply how many animals Mongolia can raise. It is how much economic value can be produced from the livestock that the land can sustainably support. Fibre production is one part of that calculation. Different animals produce different quantities and types of fibre, and fibre quality also varies with genetics, age, sex, nutrition and management. Increasing the value obtained from each animal is therefore a different strategy from increasing the number of animals.

The historical numbers show how quickly a livestock system can change. In just three decades, goats increased from 5.1 million to more than 26 million, their share of the national herd approximately doubled, and livestock density increased from 18 to 61 animals per 100 hectares. Today, after the losses of 2023 and 2024, there are still 22.9 million goats on the country's rangelands.

The numbers do not provide a single solution to rangeland degradation. They do, however, provide a clear record of how the herd has changed. Any discussion about the future of fibre production and pasture management has to begin with that history.