70%, 76.9%, 65%: How Much of the Rangeland Is Actually Degraded?

If you search for statistics about land degradation in Mongolia, you will quickly encounter several different numbers. One source says more than 76.9% of the country's land area is affected by degradation. Another reports that around 70% of grasslands have deteriorated. A 2025 scientific study estimates that 65% of Mongolia's rangelands are degraded to some extent. Other studies have produced estimates ranging from 22% to 95%. At first, these numbers can look contradictory. They are not necessarily measuring the same thing.

One of the most detailed examinations of this problem came from a systematic review published in the Journal of Arid Environments in 2022. Researchers examined 114 studies published between 1950 and 2021 to determine how rangeland degradation in Mongolia had been measured. Their conclusion was straightforward: there was no single standardized definition or measurement method being used across the studies. They found estimates ranging from 22% to 95% of Mongolia's land area. The researchers wrote that “disparate estimates of rangeland degradation, ranging between 22 and 95% of Mongolia, are likely related to the use of different methods of rangeland assessments.”

That distinction matters because “degraded” does not describe one specific condition. A study might measure changes in vegetation cover, plant species composition, soil condition, productivity, land cover or another indicator. The same piece of land could therefore be classified differently depending on which measurement is used and what the researchers consider to be the reference condition. The 2022 systematic review found that degradation was “frequently assessed as a change in vegetation or land cover,” while only 19 of the 114 studies explicitly defined different levels of degradation.

The 76.9% figure comes from Mongolia's 2020 national desertification assessment. The UN Development Programme reports that 76.9% of Mongolia's total land area, equivalent to approximately 120.3 million hectares, was affected by degradation. Mongolia's National Adaptation Plan gives the same figure and notes that the affected area includes different levels of severity rather than one uniform condition. In other words, 76.9% does not mean that 76.9% of Mongolia has become desert. It means that this proportion of the country's land was classified as experiencing some level of degradation under that assessment.

The same national assessment gives another important number. Of the 120.3 million hectares classified as degraded, 4.7% of Mongolia's total land area was categorized as severely degraded, while 18.6% was categorized under the next severe condition in the assessment. The remaining affected area fell into less severe categories. This is why quoting only the 76.9% figure without explaining the classification can give a misleading impression of what the number represents.

A separate assessment of Mongolia's grasslands found that almost 70% showed deterioration in plant species composition compared with a reference condition. Mongolia's 2024–2030 National Adaptation Plan also reports that the ecologically sustainable grazing level was estimated at 62 sheep per 100 hectares, while the 2019 average was 105 sheep per 100 hectares. When animals were counted according to the number kept within each administrative territory, the figure reached 147 sheep per 100 hectares. The report identifies this difference between estimated sustainable capacity and actual livestock density as one of the main contributors to pasture degradation and overgrazing.

A newer 2025 study gives another number: 65% of Mongolia's rangelands were classified as degraded to a variable extent compared with their reference state. The study was published in Rangeland Ecology & Management and examined the institutional and governance factors surrounding rangeland degradation. Its authors state that “65% of rangelands are degraded to variable extent compared to their reference state. So why does this number differ from 76.9%?

The first reason is that the studies are not measuring exactly the same area. The 76.9% figure refers to the country's total land area and comes from a national desertification assessment. The 65% figure refers specifically to rangelands and compares them with a reference state. The second reason is methodology. The studies use different definitions, reference conditions and indicators. The 2022 systematic review found that these methodological differences were one of the main reasons estimates varied so widely.

There is also a difference between land degradation and rangeland degradation. Mongolia has approximately 120.3 million hectares affected by some level of degradation according to the 2020 national assessment, but that does not mean all of that area is grazing pasture. Rangelands cover a very large proportion of Mongolia and provide the foundation for pastoral livestock production, but national land degradation statistics can include areas beyond grazing land. Comparing a national land figure directly with a rangeland-specific figure therefore requires caution.

The causes are also more complicated than a single number about livestock. The 2022 systematic review found that grazing and climate, either individually or together, were the drivers most frequently identified by the studies it examined. However, the researchers also found that the importance of different drivers changed between Mongolia's ecological zones. They specifically concluded that “the impact of different drivers differs across ecological zones.”

Climate is particularly important because Mongolia has experienced substantial changes in temperature and precipitation. The UNDP reports that Mongolia's average temperature increased by 2.26°C over the previous 80 years, while annual precipitation has decreased. These changes can reduce vegetation productivity and make rangelands more vulnerable to additional grazing pressure.

Livestock pressure is nevertheless a major measurable part of the picture. A 2024 World Bank assessment states that “as much as 70 to 88 percent of Mongolian pasture is degraded by overgrazing.” The same report records that productive rangeland decreased from approximately 124 million hectares in 1987 to 110 million hectares in 2020, while livestock numbers more than tripled and reached between two and seven times estimated carrying capacity in some areas.

The numbers therefore tell a more complicated story than simply saying that “76.9% of Mongolia is degraded.” There is strong evidence that large areas of Mongolia's rangelands have experienced degradation, and multiple assessments identify grazing pressure and climate as important factors. But the exact percentage depends on what is being measured, where it is being measured and which reference condition is being used.

That distinction is important for understanding what the statistics actually mean. A percentage without a definition can sound precise while hiding substantial uncertainty. The difference between 65%, 70% and 76.9% is not necessarily a disagreement about whether degradation exists. In many cases, it reflects different questions being asked about different areas using different methods.

The most useful number may therefore not be a single percentage at all. The systematic review of 114 studies shows that researchers have been measuring Mongolia's rangelands in many different ways, while more recent national monitoring programs are working toward more standardized assessments. Better consistency in how degradation is defined and measured makes it easier to compare changes over time and determine which areas are actually improving or deteriorating.

What the existing evidence does establish is that rangeland degradation is widespread, livestock pressure is significant, climate conditions are changing, and the scale of the problem varies considerably between regions. The statistics are large, but understanding exactly what each statistic measures is just as important as the statistic itself.